Risk Management. Calculating possible loss. Help!!!

[Daria]

Please help. I got the following question. There is a 1% chance that I will lose more than (has to be calculated - result is the answer to the question) in Toyota stock when investing €1mn on 4th oct (bought stock at 24.7).
I have tried to calculate based on standard devations and 2.33 number relating to 1% please help. See data below for the information provided to solve the problem (some might be irrelevant).

Standard deviation= 0.4

Date Toyota Microsoft
4-Oct-11 24.7 25.34
3-oct-11 25.5 24.53
30-Sep-11 25.55 24.89
29-Sep-11 25.84 25.45
28-Sep-11 25.65 25.58
27-sep-11 25.42 25.67
26-Sep-11 25.33 25.44
23-Sep-11 25.25 25.06
22-Sep-11 25.17 25.06
21-Sep-11 25.5 25.99
20-Sep-11 25.75 26.98
19-Sep-11 25.6 27.21
16-Sep-11 25.55 27.12
15-Sep-11 25.43 26.99
14-Sep-11 25.5 26.5
13-Sep-11 25.1 26.04
12-Sep-11 24.7 25.89
9-Sep-11 25.03 25.74
8-Sep-11 25.11 26.22
7-Sep-11 24.6 26
6-Sep-11 24.2 25.51

 

[tkhunny]

1) What are your thoughts besides the standard deviation? A few days of information hardly will pin to down to 1%.
2) Frankly, with your data, 8 downs and 12 ups, it seems a little unreasonable to find only a 1% chance.
3) Have you put a confidence interval on the Slope of the Regression Line?
4) What I'm really trying to say is that you should demonstrate knowledge of the methods that were presented in class or in your textbook.