Hi guys!
The story is quite long but for the beginning, I will try a very short version and then I will answer all questions (please do ask).
You could be aware of the latest Drake equation update for 2020 that suggests 36 possible alien species in our galaxy
The Drake equation estimates the possible aliens
- alive now
- in our galaxy (only)
- which are almost similar to us technologically (not more advanced, not more primitive)
- all previously existing advanced aliens died (!)
I am however interested in something else.
I am interested in estimations that can cover the entire Universe and also the entire existence of the Universe, so time will have a role
I am interested in the number of intelligent alien civilisations that have ever existed and reached our level of technology.
The variables are different from the Drake Equation as follows:
- PN (planet number of Earth-like planets in the Universe - we can find this - Drake equation only looks at our galaxy)
- PLC - primordial life chances - 9:1
- ILchanches (intelligent life chances from PLC - 3:2)
Those numbers came from this very recent study https://news.columbia.edu/life-intelligence-universe-earth-bayesian-statistics which give us chances for PLC and ILChanches
- ILCicle (intelligent life cycle - 5 billion years)
- RT (reset times - we need a scientific research for this number. For the moment we can use a... 1 planet gets its conditions changed (enough to restart the life cycle from 0)... 5 times? Each planet has a RT of 5? We will have a form to adjust all those variables so dw.
My request for the great mathematicians on this forum:
I don't know how to put the variables in equation.
Please help!
This should produce TN = total number of intelligent alien civilizations that appeared in our Universe from the Big Bang!
So not the number aliens exist today, not the number that survived the Fermis paradox at some point, not the number that visited us!
It is the number of intelligent aliens that reached our preset technological stage.
Maybe they all died after that or all survived, that is the next step to look at.
The variables are still not completely set. For example, we still need to decide if the RT is already accounted for in ILChanches and some other stuff.
It is all open to criticism obviously and we will also have fields to adjust the variables.
The current Drake Equation has limitations to answer if we are not alone - it looks only at our galaxy and also they assume all aliens die at some point which is a very strong position on a debatable subject.
Thanks in advance!
(I am a web programmer with a big interest in all the aliens, AI and emergent technologies but my math skills are a bit rusted to say it mildly
)
The story is quite long but for the beginning, I will try a very short version and then I will answer all questions (please do ask).
You could be aware of the latest Drake equation update for 2020 that suggests 36 possible alien species in our galaxy
The Drake equation estimates the possible aliens
- alive now
- in our galaxy (only)
- which are almost similar to us technologically (not more advanced, not more primitive)
- all previously existing advanced aliens died (!)
I am however interested in something else.
I am interested in estimations that can cover the entire Universe and also the entire existence of the Universe, so time will have a role
I am interested in the number of intelligent alien civilisations that have ever existed and reached our level of technology.
The variables are different from the Drake Equation as follows:
- PN (planet number of Earth-like planets in the Universe - we can find this - Drake equation only looks at our galaxy)
- PLC - primordial life chances - 9:1
- ILchanches (intelligent life chances from PLC - 3:2)
Those numbers came from this very recent study https://news.columbia.edu/life-intelligence-universe-earth-bayesian-statistics which give us chances for PLC and ILChanches
- ILCicle (intelligent life cycle - 5 billion years)
- RT (reset times - we need a scientific research for this number. For the moment we can use a... 1 planet gets its conditions changed (enough to restart the life cycle from 0)... 5 times? Each planet has a RT of 5? We will have a form to adjust all those variables so dw.
My request for the great mathematicians on this forum:
I don't know how to put the variables in equation.
Please help!
This should produce TN = total number of intelligent alien civilizations that appeared in our Universe from the Big Bang!
So not the number aliens exist today, not the number that survived the Fermis paradox at some point, not the number that visited us!
It is the number of intelligent aliens that reached our preset technological stage.
Maybe they all died after that or all survived, that is the next step to look at.
The variables are still not completely set. For example, we still need to decide if the RT is already accounted for in ILChanches and some other stuff.
It is all open to criticism obviously and we will also have fields to adjust the variables.
The current Drake Equation has limitations to answer if we are not alone - it looks only at our galaxy and also they assume all aliens die at some point which is a very strong position on a debatable subject.
Thanks in advance!
(I am a web programmer with a big interest in all the aliens, AI and emergent technologies but my math skills are a bit rusted to say it mildly
)