Probability

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jackjones

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If 1,406 vehicles were manufactured at plant A and 28,989 were manufactured at plant B what is the probability that any given vehicle was manufactured at plant B? Thanks.
 
Probability is Possible outcome ÷ Total outcome.
There can be more than two manufacturing plants, so probability can change accordingly.
 
tri said:
Probability is Possible outcome ÷ Total outcome.
There can be more than two manufacturing plants, so probability can change accordingly.
Click to expand...
No, sorry that is not correct. I am sure that you meant ALL possible outcomes, but that is the same as total outcome.
The way to say it is the probability of an event = (the total number of favorable outcomes)/(total number of outcomes)
 
Steven G said:
No, sorry that is not correct. I am sure that you meant ALL possible outcomes, but that is the same as total outcome.
The way to say it is the probability of an event = (the total number of favorable outcomes)/(total number of outcomes)
Click to expand...
"Total number of favorable outcomes" is also unclear as it does not specify if the condition of favor is a specific one or the set of all favorable conditions possible (which is the total outcome).
People familiar with the concept of probability can figure out the real meaning.
People not familiar with Probability can probably not understand any of the definitions.
Probability of someone getting confused is closer to 0 than to 1.
 
tri said:
"Total number of favorable outcomes" is also unclear as it does not specify if the condition of favor is a specific one or the set of all favorable conditions possible (which is the total outcome).
People familiar with the concept of probability can figure out the real meaning.
People not familiar with Probability can probably not understand any of the definitions.
Probability of someone getting confused is closer to 0 than to 1.
Click to expand...
Actually, I think you mean the probability of someone getting confused is closer to 1 than 0.
 
@jackjones please send a message, even if it's just "I don't understand" (with a little bit of description about exactly what you don't understand). Look at post#6, can you perhaps make an attempt to work out ...
  • the total number of possible outcomes
  • the total number of favorable outcomes
 
There is only two plants.

I just need some way of showing that in all likelihood the truck in question was manufactured at Plant B.

Thanks.

Is the following right?

1,406/30,395 = 0.04 (4%?)
28,989/30,395 = 0.95 (95%?)
 
jackjones said:
Is the following right?

1,406/30,395 = 0.04 (4%?)
28,989/30,395 = 0.95 (95%?)
Click to expand...
How can they both be correct, especially since the answers are different?
P(any event) = # of favorable outcomes/ # of all possible outcomes.
Which of your two answer live up to the above?
 
jackjones said:
There is only two plants.

I just need some way of showing that in all likelihood the truck in question was manufactured at Plant B.

Is the following right?

1,406/30,395 = 0.04 (4%?)
28,989/30,395 = 0.95 (95%?)
Click to expand...
If you meant this,

P(made at Plant A) = 1,406/30,395 = 0.0463, or about 5%​
P(made at Plant B) = 28,989/30,395 = 0.9537, or about 95%​

then you are right. Yes, a truck randomly chosen from the entire population is more likely to have been made at B, by a factor of about 20. Of course, this assumes that the output of plant A is evenly mixed into the population; we don't know how you are selecting one.

What you have done is to divide the number of equally likely favorable outcomes by the total number of equally likely outcomes. (Steven G is being a little sloppy.)
 
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