Probability question: two turtles are part of a turtle racing league. Turtle 1 has a 76% winrate. Turtle 2 has a 53% winrate.

[Jusgo]

two turtles are part of a turtle racing league. Turtle 1 has a 76% winrate. Turtle 2 has a 53% winrate. If both turtles face of in one shell to shell race what is the probability that turtle 2 wins the race.
(Only one turtle can win and they cannot draw)

 

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[R.M.]

What is the probability that Turtle 1 loses?

 

[Steven G]

I don't like this problem.
Many years ago I played in a hockey league that had 4 teams (in my age group).
Team 1 never lost a game. (100% win rate)
Team 2 only lost to team 1 (no ties) (66 2/3% win rate)
Team 3 only lost to team 1 and team 2 (33 1/3% win rate)
and team 4 never won a game (0% win rate)
I'm assuming that each team played every other team the same number of times.

Now what is the probability that team 2 beats team 3? To me, this is not a clear problem.

It could be that team 1 is a professional hockey team in the NHL.
Team 2 could be a high school hockey team.
Team 3 could be a street hockey team with little experience.
Team 4 could be 80 year old people who never played hockey in their entire life.

OR

all 4 teams could be professional hockey players who can beat any of the other teams.

In my opinion, if team 1 (professional team) played team 3 (team with little experience), then team 1 will win.