Over the years, it was noted that only about 25% of the hurricanes that formed in the Gulf of Mexico, struck the Texas coast. As a member of TEMA (Texas Emergency Management Agency), you think it is worthwhile to retain a consultant to predict the probability that Hurricane Zorro, a category 5 hurricane, which just formed in the Gulf of Mexico, will strike the Texas coast. The “track record” (historical record) for the consultant you hire, indicates that when a hurricane struck the Texas coast, the consultant had accurately predicted that it would indeed strike the coast, with about 80% accuracy. When the hurricane did not strike the Texas coast, about 30% of the time the consultant had predicted that the hurricane would, in fact, strike the Texas coast. Hurricane Zorro seems to be a threat to Texas. Potential damage from this major hurricane could be staggering. The consultant disagrees. He confidently predicts that Hurricane Zorro will NOT strike the Texas coast. What is the probability that Hurricane Zorro WILL strike the Texas coast, given the consultant’s prognostication (prediction)? What would be your final recommendation, given this probability, if Hurricane Zorro seem to be headed for the major city of Corpus Christi? Evacuate?
Is this a confidence interval question or a probability question? How do I get started?
Is this a confidence interval question or a probability question? How do I get started?