Hello.
I have a complex problem and I know there are few people who would even bother reading all that’s here and that’s why I really appreciate any help you can offer.
Here’s the problem:
I have invested money in a pay to click program. On that site I make money by clicking and viewing a few ads each day and by renting referrals (people who just like me click their ads, I also get a percentage of their clicks).
I pay about 20 cents for one referral and get to keep him for 30 days. I also gain 1 cent for each ad they view. If a referral clicks a day, he will most likely view 4 ads (because it’s the minimum amount of ads people get)
Since the referrals are human people, some of them will quit the program or won’t click consistently, making me loose money. Because of that, this site’s Admin offered us a tool to “recycle” thouse referrals: we pay 4 cents to exchange a referral for another one. If a referral does not click for 7 days straight, he will get replaced for free.
The amount of days he has until he “expires” remains the same. If I like the referral, I can “renew” him, I can pay to keep him for another 30 days (it’s what I do in most cases).
Now I’m trying to use the recycling feature to increase my earnings but I can’t decide what refs to recycle and what refs not to. How can I maximize my earnings?
Here’s the information I get from my refs:
“Referal since” – the date when I got the referral.
“Next payment” – How many days left until I should renew him.
“Last click” – When did he clicked last time.
“Clicks” – How many clicks he has made since I got him.
AVG – Average of his clicks (in terms of days).
Exact avg. - Average of his clicks (by minutes).
A10- Average in the last 10 days.
A7 – Average in the last 7 days.
SD- standard deviation.
SDA – (Standard deviation)/(AVG)
I can also see when did a ref click in the last 10 days in the graph shown below.
http://img51.imageshack.us/i/refspage.png/
I also have access to a few graphs that show me the total clicks all my referrals made each day (1); the amount of money spent on recycling each day (2); the money spent on renewing (3); when are my refs going to expire (4), my earnings (5) and daily profit (6).
I can also “flag” a group of referrals and study their behaviour without loosing track of them over the days.
http://img138.imageshack.us/i/statistics1.png/
http://img51.imageshack.us/i/statistics2.png/
Some data you may find useful.
Renewing price – 20 cent for 30 days each.
Recycling price – 4 cents for each ref.
Free recycling – If the referral hasn’t clicked for 7 days straight.
AVG I get if I do not recycle at all – around 0,85 clicks/day.
Total referrals – 3981
At first, most new referrals are on an average better than the older ones I’ve got.
Only 33 out of my 3981 refs are older than 30 days.
If there’s more information you require, just ask and I can try to provide it.
Here’s a solution I came up with:
- Only recycle referrals older than 15 days. Because human behaviour is unpredictable and during thouse 2 weeks I will get a good notion on what is the clicking behaviour of the individual. I choose 2 weeks because human behaviour is conditioned by the days of the week (some days the got more work, on Sundays they have a day off, etc), one week only may not be enough.
- Only recycle refs who have under 5 days since last clicks (because of the free recycling)
- Recycle thouse referrals who’s AVG7 (plus 4 cents in his clicks because of the recycle) is lower than my global AVG.
I’m sorry but I’ve never been too good at math, that’s why I’m asking for help now. Thanks.
Edit: It wouldn't let me post images so I had to put direct links to imageshack.
I have a complex problem and I know there are few people who would even bother reading all that’s here and that’s why I really appreciate any help you can offer.
Here’s the problem:
I have invested money in a pay to click program. On that site I make money by clicking and viewing a few ads each day and by renting referrals (people who just like me click their ads, I also get a percentage of their clicks).
I pay about 20 cents for one referral and get to keep him for 30 days. I also gain 1 cent for each ad they view. If a referral clicks a day, he will most likely view 4 ads (because it’s the minimum amount of ads people get)
Since the referrals are human people, some of them will quit the program or won’t click consistently, making me loose money. Because of that, this site’s Admin offered us a tool to “recycle” thouse referrals: we pay 4 cents to exchange a referral for another one. If a referral does not click for 7 days straight, he will get replaced for free.
The amount of days he has until he “expires” remains the same. If I like the referral, I can “renew” him, I can pay to keep him for another 30 days (it’s what I do in most cases).
Now I’m trying to use the recycling feature to increase my earnings but I can’t decide what refs to recycle and what refs not to. How can I maximize my earnings?
Here’s the information I get from my refs:
“Referal since” – the date when I got the referral.
“Next payment” – How many days left until I should renew him.
“Last click” – When did he clicked last time.
“Clicks” – How many clicks he has made since I got him.
AVG – Average of his clicks (in terms of days).
Exact avg. - Average of his clicks (by minutes).
A10- Average in the last 10 days.
A7 – Average in the last 7 days.
SD- standard deviation.
SDA – (Standard deviation)/(AVG)
I can also see when did a ref click in the last 10 days in the graph shown below.
http://img51.imageshack.us/i/refspage.png/
I also have access to a few graphs that show me the total clicks all my referrals made each day (1); the amount of money spent on recycling each day (2); the money spent on renewing (3); when are my refs going to expire (4), my earnings (5) and daily profit (6).
I can also “flag” a group of referrals and study their behaviour without loosing track of them over the days.
http://img138.imageshack.us/i/statistics1.png/
http://img51.imageshack.us/i/statistics2.png/
Some data you may find useful.
Renewing price – 20 cent for 30 days each.
Recycling price – 4 cents for each ref.
Free recycling – If the referral hasn’t clicked for 7 days straight.
AVG I get if I do not recycle at all – around 0,85 clicks/day.
Total referrals – 3981
At first, most new referrals are on an average better than the older ones I’ve got.
Only 33 out of my 3981 refs are older than 30 days.
If there’s more information you require, just ask and I can try to provide it.
Here’s a solution I came up with:
- Only recycle referrals older than 15 days. Because human behaviour is unpredictable and during thouse 2 weeks I will get a good notion on what is the clicking behaviour of the individual. I choose 2 weeks because human behaviour is conditioned by the days of the week (some days the got more work, on Sundays they have a day off, etc), one week only may not be enough.
- Only recycle refs who have under 5 days since last clicks (because of the free recycling)
- Recycle thouse referrals who’s AVG7 (plus 4 cents in his clicks because of the recycle) is lower than my global AVG.
I’m sorry but I’ve never been too good at math, that’s why I’m asking for help now. Thanks.
Edit: It wouldn't let me post images so I had to put direct links to imageshack.