investigating probabilitie of the card game 'Happy Families'

[freya81]

Given the rule set below, what would be the best way to investigate and record, in depth, the probability of this card game in order to create model/s? I have started by investigating how many cards in a hand and how many of a particular type but when I begin to think about the probability I get swamped and start to panic. I don’t know the best way to record my data and don’t know the best way to begin.


Happy Families Rule Set

Aim of the game: collect as many ‘families’ (4 of a kind) as possible.

Set up:
44 cards Father, Mother, Son and Daughter of eleven families
All cards dealt out. Number of cards in hand depends on number of players.

Game:
Player to the left of dealer starts.

Ask for specific card. Can ask any Player
Must have like card in hand already
Must hand over card if got


If player gets required card Player asks again
- may ask same/ different player


If player does not get card
The opponent asked gets to ask for a card from any player


Completed Families are placed faced down in front of player

Game is over when all the families are complete, player with the most Families wins

No. of    No. of cards per player  players    1   2   3   4   5   6

   2      22  22 
   3      15  15  14 
   4      11  11  11  11 
   5       9   9   9   9   8 
   6       8   8   7   7   7   7

 

[Denis]

Can you "explain over again" sticking to numbers;
like who cares if this is called families!

Is this correct:

44 cards: 4 labelled 1, 4 labelled 2, ... , 4 labelled 11

Object: get 4-same

Number of players; 4 possibilities(?):
2: 22 cards each
4: 11 cards each
11: 4 cards each
22: 2 cards each
...if not, how would 5 players work? 8 each, "kitty" of 4 ?

 

[Gene]

I am unsure where you want to go with this. For instance in a two player game the first player wins. He knows what cards to ask for 'cause he knows what player two has.
It starts to get interesting at three players. If #1 has an ace and asks #2 (who has three) about aces does he get three or only one. By probabilities, do you mean the probability of say player #1 winning? Or do you mean how many families player #1 is likely to have when the game starts? Or what?