Help using probability to solve a real world question

[Kaicomm]

I was on a hike recently and the guide told me that in his 30 years of hiking no one has ever been injured on a hike. I believe he's lying. I want to know how to calculate the probability of someone being injured on a hike.

If I went hiking twice a week for 30 years, in parks where there are dangerous animals, physical dangers (cliffs, ravines, poison plants), and some unhealthy/unprepared participants, what are the chances of someone being hurt?

How would I set-up this problem?

Thanks for any guidance you can give,

Kai

 

[tkhunny]

Sadly, it is not possible to produce a reasonable value without at least ONE occurrence.

Rather than not telling the truth, perhaps you should clarify the Guide's definition. Not a sprained ankle? Not a limb to the face? Not a mosquito bite? Not two rambunctious kids punching each other?

Your reactioany views of "lying" are exactly why we have so much social trounle in this world. Go ahead and give yourself room to think better of people.

Hey, you said "any guidance". (emphasis added)