[ college econ101 ]I dont think I understand the Divident Discount Model (DDM). Please help

HueyLewis

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I am trying to calculate the yearly value of a stock using Divident Discount Model. However, I am unsure if I am using the model the correct way.
I am interested in calculating the value of each year of the stock, in a time span of 4 years.

The first-year dividend is $2. The market discount rate (K) is 5% and constant and the dividend growth rate is 3%, which also constant.

Do I just use this formula for each year?

Equation 1.JPG

Like this?

Equation 8.JPG
Calculations for year 4:

No idea??? Is it possible to calculate the value of the stock for year 4 without using dividend for year 5?

Am I using the model correctly?

Or is this the correct way to calculate the value of for the value of the stock after 2 years:

Equation 5.JPG

Equation 6.JPG
 
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Under the DDM, the price of the stock is the same regardless of what year you buy it. Suppose you buy the stock in 2020, the value of the stock is [math]V=\frac{2}{0.05-0.03}=100[/math]If I were to buy the same stock one year later in 2021, the value of the stock is still be 100. Under the DDM, it assumes that you're receiving the dividend indefinitely.
Unless what you're asking is what is the value of the stock if you were to look at the first 4 years only?
 
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Thanks for the answer. :)

Correct me If I am wrong. I think there are iterations of the DDM which can accomodate growth of the dividends. so dividend value is not always equal to

Dividends.JPG

From : Melicher, R. W., & Norton, E. A. (2016). Introduction to finance: Markets, investments, and financial management, 16th edition enhanced EPUB (16th ed.). John Wiley & Sons:


Snippet 1.JPG

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PS. I have dyslexia and discalculia. So I apologize in advance for any simple reading, spelling and calculation errors.
 
I think they make the same point in:
Peterson Drake, P. & Fabozzi, F.J. (2010). The Basics of Finance [E-book] An Introduction to Financial Markets, Business Finance, and Portfolio Management. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.. page: 496:

Snippet 3.JPG
 
I think it's beneficial to understand how the formula was derived if you truly want to understand the model.
[math]V_0=\frac{D}{(1+r)}+\frac{D(1+g)}{(1+r)^2}+\frac{D(1+g)^2}{(1+r)^3}+\dots\\ V_0= \frac{D}{(1+r)}\left(1+\frac{1+g}{1+r}+\left(\frac{1+g}{1+r}\right)^2+\dots\right)\\ Let \quad v=\frac{1+g}{1+r}\\ V_0=\frac{D}{(1+r)}\underbrace{(1+v+v^2+\dots)}_{\text{sum of infinite geometric series}}=\frac{D}{(1+r)}\cdot \frac{1}{1-v}\\[/math]Note: for the sum of a infinite geometric to converge, [imath]|v|<1\implies(1+g)<(1+r) \implies g < r[/imath]
Substitute back v:
[math]V_0=\frac{D}{1+r}\left(\frac{1}{1-\frac{1+g}{1+r}}\right)= \frac{D}{1+r}\left(\frac{1}{\frac{1+r-1-g}{1+r}}\right)= \frac{D}{\cancel{1+r}}\left(\frac{\cancel{1+r}}{r-g}\right)=\frac{D}{r-g}\quad\blacksquare[/math]The reason the price of the stock is the same regardless of when you buy it is because you're expecting to have infinite many dividends coming in, whether you buy in the year 2020 or in 2021.
 
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The reason the price of the stock is the same regardless of when you buy it is because you're expecting to have infinite many payments coming in, whether you buy in the year 2020 or in 2021.

But shouldn't the dividends be added together? In order to calculate the value of the stock in Year 1, I get to add the dividend of that year with the terminal value (Value3). Year 2, the dividend of year 2 and year 1 are added together with the "terminal" value of year 4. The equation for the terminal value is as follows:

terminal calc.JPG
 
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But shouldn't the dividends be added together? In order to calculate the value of the stock in Year 1, I get to add the dividend of that year with the terminal value (Value3). Year 2, the dividend of year 2 and year 1 are added together with the "terminal" value of year 4. The equation for the terminal value is as follows:

View attachment 31363
Not sure if I understand your question, or what you’re trying to find. The equation that you show is present value of 1 dividend payment at time 3, not the value of the stock at time 3.
 
This math is very ugly. Please give me an hour. We are talking about the Gordon model, where dividends are NOT constant. I have not worked with it in many years.
 
I hate to disagree with Big Beach Banana, but it appears to me that you are actually using the Gordon growth model, which is one variant of the dividend discount model, which in turn is a variant of the capital asset pricing model. In the Gordon model, the stock price is not invariant.

Let’s first review a basic bit of math. If n is a positive integer and a is not equal to 1

[math](1 - a) * \sum_{j=0}^n a^j = \sum_{j=0}^n a^j - \left ( \sum_{j=0}^n a^{(j+1)} \right ) = \\ a^0 + \left ( \sum_{j=1}^n a^j \right ) - \left \{ \left ( \sum_{j=1}^n a^j \right ) + a^{(j+1)} \right \} = 1 - a^{(n+1)} \iff \\ \sum_{j=0}^n a^j = \dfrac{1 - a^{(n+1)}}{1 - a}.[/math]
Does that ring a bell? Geometric series?

[math]\therefore b > 0 \implies \sum_{j=1}^n \dfrac{1}{(1 + b)^j} = \sum_{j=1}^n \left ( \dfrac{1}{1 + b} \right )^j = \left \{ \sum_{j=0}^n \left ( \dfrac{1}{1 + b} \right )^j \right \} - 1=\\ \dfrac{1 - \left ( \dfrac{1}{1 + b} \right )^{(n+1)}}{1 - \dfrac{1}{1 + b}} - 1= \dfrac{1 - \dfrac{1}{(1 + b)^{(n+1)}} - \left ( 1 - \dfrac{1}{1 + b} \right )}{\dfrac{b}{1 + b}} =\\ \dfrac{\dfrac{1}{1 + b} - \dfrac{1}{(1 + b)^{(n+1)}}}{1} * \dfrac{(1 + b)}{b} = \dfrac{1 - (1 + b)^{-n}}{b}.[/math]
If b is an interest rate, this is just the formula for the present value an annuity of 1 dollar for n periods. This in turn gives us the present value of a perpetual annuity, namely [imath]1/b[/imath].

The capital asset pricing model basically says that the present value of an asset is the sum of its discounted cash flows. Applied to a stock that gives:

[math]V_t = \dfrac{(V_{t+1} + d_i * V_t)}{1 + r_i}, \text { where }\\ V_i = \text {market value of one share at start of period i } i;\\ d_i = \text {dividend amount payable at the end of period } i; \text { and}\\ r_i = \text {discount rate applicable to period } i.[/math]
The simplest assumption gives rise to the constant dividend discount model where the dividend is assumed certain, constant, and perpetual and the discount rate is assumed to be constant. Furthermore, at long term equilibrium, it must be true that

[math]V_t = V_{t+1} \implies V_{t+1} = \dfrac{V_{t+1} + d}{1 + r} \implies\\ V_{t+1}(1 + r) = V_{t+1} + d \implies V_{t+1} * r = d \implies r = \dfrac{d}{V_{t+1}} = \dfrac{d}{V_t}.[/math]
[math]\dfrac{d}{V_t} = r \implies V_t = \dfrac{d}{r}.[/math]
The Gordon model is not a long-term equilibrium model. The assumption is that

[math]d_i = d(1 + g)^i, \text { where } g > 0. [/math]
[math]V_t = \dfrac{V_{t+1} + d}{(1 + r)} \implies V_t = \dfrac{V_{t+n}}{(1 + r)^n} + d *\sum_{j=1}^n \left (\dfrac{1 + g}{1 + r} \right)^j[/math]
[math]V_0 = \dfrac{V_n}{(1 + r)^n} + d * \sum_{j=1}^n \left ( \dfrac{1 + g}{1+r} \right)^n.[/math]
I have to take a break now. I'll get back to it later
 
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