1st-order vs 2nd-order Markov property

dw346834

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Nov 28, 2006
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Hello,

I'm trying to determine whether or not my data exhibits a 1st-order or 2nd-order Markov property using a dataset in Excel. I have 1,000 individuals and observations on all individuals at days 't', 't+1' and 't+2'. An individual can only exhibit one of two states on each day.

Can someone help me by telling which transition probabilities I need to calculate and how I can compare these using a chi-square test in order to test the Markov property?

Thanks!
 
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